Wednesday, 28 September 2011

Parents.........U r ideal leaving imprints.........

Little eyes keep watching you….
Little ears keep hearing you……
Little hands eagerly wait to do as you do……..
Little legs love to follow as u walk so…..
You are the world for little ones……
Being watched and observed day and night tons and tons……
U r ideal leaving imprints……           

WHAT WE GET….WE TEND TO GIVE…......

Learning develops as we grow,
If one grows in hostility, fighting spirit begins to show
If one lives in tolerance, patience is what begins to grow
If encouragement is experienced, confidence develops and makes us grow
If equality and fairness is what we live, Justice in our approach will flow
If ridiculous is the environment, shy and introvert will be the person as one grow
If one get praise, appreciation is what he gives when he enter next phase
Excess of criticism if faced, condemn is what one learn as one grow
What we get , we tend to give the same as we grow…………..

Wednesday, 14 September 2011

Trading secrets........

In continuation of secrets to make large profits from trading , I have written three more secrets to ensure higher profits 
Secret 4- When in doubt, Get out
It is better to get out if things are not working according to plan. A trader’s judgment will deteriorate the longer he sticks on a losing position and he might take wrong decision at extremes. There is an old saying
‘It is prudent enough not to stand in middle of railroad tracks while decision is being taken that train coming is freight train or illusion’
Secret 5- Diversify
Risk should always be distributed among variety of trade and markets. Capital should be divided into tenths and risk should not be more than 10 percent on one trade.
Secret 6- Correctly pyramid
In a trending market, pyramiding good position can make big money. Pyramid should never be reverse one i.e. add greater number of contracts than initial position as market moves their way. It is advisable to decrease size of position through the journey and not increase it. Follow following rules to gain from pyramiding-
·         After long advance or decline, never try and make pyramid.
·         Use technical indicators to pyramid.
·         Pyramid should be made when trend first turns up or down after move down.
·         It is safer to pyramid after market moves out of accumulation or distribution.

Monday, 12 September 2011

Some Trading Secrets..........


Technology changes but human nature never changes. Mistakes made years ago continue even today. Markets are our best teachers. Here are some trading secrets for sure shot success. One may not use all the secrets but can absorb just a portion and prevent oneself from getting lost in financial desert.
Some Trading Secrets
1.     The trend is your friend
Major trend must be determined first and one must go with the wind.
When one is in bear market and trend is down, the plan should be to wait for rallies and sell short and not to pick the bottom. This is due to the fact that one might miss the bottom several times on the way down and end in losing money. The same applies in bull market (in reverse).
In any major move, however, there will be corrective moves against the trend. Sometimes sharp correction will be seen because of sudden news but it will be followed by major trend after few days. News may tempt persons to liquidate prematurely. Here
·        Temptations must be avoided.
·        Listen to only market.
·        Never set a fixed price in mind as profit objective( it is bad habit based on hope)
·        Never set fixed time to liquidate either( this way amateurs deal)
Condition do not change, one must learn to change his mind when they do. A wise man changes his mind but a fool never. There is no way one can know exactly in advance how much profit to expect. It is determined by market. The mission is to determine the trend, hope on for the ride and stay on until indicators suggest change in trend and not before.
Always go with tide, never buck it………….

Secret 2-There is probably a reason behind market behind market being cheap or expensive
It moves parallel to ‘don’t buck the trend’ Money can be earned by selling short low priced markets which are public’s favorites and in which large long interest had developed. Alternatively, cash in on expensive markets when everyone is bailing out because of feeling in market of it being high enough for healthy reaction.

It is not the price that is important but the market action.

Secret 3- Quote machine ( tape) will trick you
Watching tape whole day will make trader keep on changing his mind constantly and increases chances of being wrong. Prices tend to look weakest at strongest time and vice versa. It is impossible to stand in front of ‘The tricker’ and identify big moves before they starts. This tricker tape will fool one when accumulation takes place in market.

The tape moves in mysterious ways, the multitude to deceive.
                                               

Sunday, 11 September 2011

Life goes on………..has terrorism ended??


Life goes on………..has terrorism ended???
It has been a decade since the black day of September 11 2001 which shocked the world and bought everyone to complete silence as World Trade Centre collapsed in heaps of iron and cement and innocent human lives lost under the surreal wreckage of terrorism. The memories of September 11 elicit flood of emotions and even today ten years had passed by, the images of that terrific deadly day still stop us cold. No matter the number of times we watch horrendous footage of airplanes striking the World Trade Center, our stomachs still churn. ‘Terrorist attacks can shake the foundations of our biggest buildings, but they cannot touch the foundation of America. These acts shatter steel, but they cannot dent the steel of American resolve’, said George W .Bush. George W. Bush in Speech at National Cathedral, September 14, 2001 also quoted ,’War has been waged against us by stealth and deceit and murder. This nation is peaceful, but fierce when stirred to anger. This conflict was begun on the timing and terms of others. It will end in a way, and at an hour, of our choosing.’
UK Prime Minister Tony Blair quoted, "Britain must, and I am sure will, stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the United States of America and peaceful nations across the world in deploying every possible resource to bring to justice the people responsible, and make sure terrorism never prevails."
 Much has happened since then like America and Britain had fought wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. London and Madrid have also been the victims of murderous attacks. Security measures like increased airport security, secret wiretapping, tighter scrutiny of foreigners have been absorbed restlessly by Americans that have permanently affected the climate and culture of the Western world. Ten years since the day that forever will be known simply as 9/11, life, in fact, remains very much the same. The response to the 9/11 attacks was effective in diminishing terrorism or has made the situation worse is the real question. Osama bin Laden may be dead and al-Qaeda's capabilities significantly degraded, thanks to the brave efforts of British soldiers in the decade long campaign in Afghanistan but today also there are Islamist terrorists trying to find a way to repeat the slaughter of 2001 or of July 7, 2005. Life goes on……..

Saturday, 10 September 2011

Some Trading Secrets........

Technology changes but human nature never changes. Mistakes made years ago continue even today. Markets are our best teachers. Here are some trading secrets for sure shot success. One may not use all the secrets but can absorb just a portion and prevent oneself from getting lost in financial desert.
Some Trading Secrets
1.     The trend is your friend
Major trend must be determined first and one must go with the wind.
When one is in bear market and trend is down, the plan should be to wait for rallies and sell short and not to pick the bottom. This is due to the fact that one might miss the bottom several times on the way down and end in losing money. The same applies in bull market (in reverse).
In any major move, however, there will be corrective moves against the trend. Sometimes sharp correction will be seen because of sudden news but it will be followed by major trend after few days. News may tempt persons to liquidate prematurely. Here
·        Temptations must be avoided.
·        Listen to only market.
·        Never set a fixed price in mind as profit objective( it is bad habit based on hope)
·        Never set fixed time to liquidate either( this way amateurs deal)
Condition do not change, one must learn to change his mind when they do. A wise man changes his mind but a fool never. There is no way one can know exactly in advance how much profit to expect. It is determined by market. The mission is to determine the trend, hope on for the ride and stay on until indicators suggest change in trend and not before.
Always go with tide, never buck it………….
                                                           to be continued……….


Friday, 9 September 2011

Winning strategies for trading in Options..........


Winning strategies for trading in Options
1.   Stay away from deep in money options
High leverage and limited risk makes options better than the rest but if option is too deep in money, risk increases and leverage for investors goes down. Investor in this case pays more and is prone to lose more. Here the limited risk is also higher. So, deep in money options should be avoided.
2.   Stay  away from deep out of money options
There is an illusion that deep out of money options provide with more leverage. But talking about reality they promote over commitment and limit opportunity for earning profit. One cannot deny the fact of them hitting at times but this game is game of odds which are against the investor if he is buying deep out of money. It may be more realistic to purchase deep out of money option if time frame is big but leverage is reduced as he pays for time.
3.   Know your market and trade slightly out of money, at the money or slightly in the money options
Option writing can bring high profits in dull and flat markets. If wave in market changes, cover fast before that catastrophic loss. If option premiums feel too low to provide adequate cushion of income, common wisdom is to ‘sell flat market’ but this is time to think to buy. Selling should be avoided in period of rising volatility.
4.   Covered call writings is a good strategy for what appears to be a bullish environment and covered put writings is generally good for what looks like a bearish one
In this strategy, both futures and options are used together and it has ability to earn profit on both legs. It works well in modestly bullish and bearish environment as well.
5.   Look for opportunities to backspread
It involves selling a call or put at one strike price and buying greater number of calls at higher strike price or buying greater number of puts at lower strike price. Strategy of this sort has predetermined and limited risk and it is one which can prove to be profitable despite one being dead wrong. The profit is unlimited on major upside or major downside move.
Options are wonderful tools. Although, options are not magic potion but they can offer best in both worlds to a major extent if implemented with proper knowledge.

Thursday, 8 September 2011

CONCEPTUAL ANALYSIS OF FOREX RISK MANAGEMENT IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR

 Abstract

This paper attempts to evaluate the various alternatives available to the Indian corporates for hedging financial risks. Hedging is a risk management technique, done to protect the foreign exchange exposures against the volatility of exchange rates, by using derivatives like Options, Futures, Forward Contracts, Swaps or by off-setting positions against the underlying asset. Managing foreign exchange risk is a fundamental component in the safe and sound management of all institutions that have exposures in foreign currencies. It involves prudently managing foreign currency positions in order to control, within set parameters, the impact of changes in exchange rates on the financial position of the corporates. The major parts of earnings of information technology come through exports in US dollars. The value of US dollar is fluctuating day by day which is, in turn, reducing the quantum of exports and profit margin of such companies. As Information Technology Industry is export oriented industry, hence the study of forex risk management in this sector is of great significance because the foreign exchange risk requires a lot of attention.

Origin and Development of IT Sector
India is pioneer in software development and favourite destination for IT-enabled services. As regards its development in India, it has come into existence by virtue of availability of trained English speaking professionals, cost competitiveness and quality telecommunications infrastructure. India has a vast market and Indian Information Technology provides potential services like IT Services, Engineering Services, IT enabled Services and Electronic Business (E-Business).

As regards IT Services, these consists of Information Services (IS), outsourcing packaged software support and installation systems integration, processing services, hardware support and installation and IT training and education. Engineering Services consist of Industrial Design, Mechanical Design, Electronic System Design, Design Validation Testing, Industrialization and Prototyping. IT enabled Services refer to the use of telecom networks or the Internet. Such services comprise of Remote Maintenance, Back Office Operations, Data Processing, Call Centres, Business Process Outsourcing, etc. E-Business implies business which is carried out on the Internet. It includes buying and selling, serving customers and collaborating with business partners.

      As a matter of fact, the Indian IT sector is very lucrative because of : (i) Low  wage structure; (ii) Government's Policy; (iii) Quality of work; (iv) Highly skilled human resource; (v) Establishment of Foreign Organizations in India; (vi) Cost competitiveness; (vii) Quality telecommunications infrastructure. (ix) English-speaking professionals; and (x) Quality Standards.

          As regards Key Players in the IT Sector, Tata consultancy Services Ltd., Wipro Technologies Ltd., Infosys Technologies Ltd., Satyam Computer Services Ltd. are India’s Tier one companies in the Information Technology Sector. The other key players include : IBM, HCL, Patni, Polaris, Cisco, KPIT Cummins, I-Flex Solutions, Cognizant, Sapient & Mphasis. Besides, a  large number of multi-national IT enterprises are also operating in India in sectors such as Integrated Chip Design, System Software, Communication Software, R&D Centers, Technology Support Sector, Captive Support Sector, Business Process Outsourcing Sector and benefiting from cost and quality advantages available in the country. These multinationals comprise of Siemens, Philips, Intel, Texas Instruments etc. (Chip Design); Siemens, Motorola, Lucent Technologies, Sony, Nortel etc. (Communication Software); Microsoft, Oracle, Sun Microsystems, HP, Compaq etc. (Systems Software); Google, Yahoo etc. (R & D Centres); Axa Business Services, Swiss Shared Services, Siemens Shared Services etc. (Business Process Outsourcing Sector); Accenture, DELL, HSBC, GE Capital, Fidelity etc.

            As regards the growth of the Indian IT Sector, the Indian information technology sector is one of the sunshine sectors of the Indian economy witnessing rapid growth.The Indian IT- Business Process Outsourcing sector aims to achieve a target of US$ 60 billion in exports and US$ 73-75 billion in overall software and services revenues by 2010. India’s information and communication technology market also aims to grow 20.3 per cent annually to reach US$ 24.3 billion by 2011. The Indian IT and IT enabled Services  market is targeted to grow at the rate of over 16 per cent to become a US$ 132 billion industry, significantly, the domestic market alone is targeted to become over US$ 50 billion, with an annual compound growth rate of 18.4 per cent. Simultaneously, the IT and IT enabled Services exports are targeted to more than double to US $ 78.62 billion by 2012.[1]

            IT enabled Services offers services such as Knowledge Process Outsourcing (KPO), Legal Process Outsourcing (LPO), Games Process Outsourcing (GPO) etc. More and more sophisticated products are being developed in India. The domestic Business Process Outsourcing segment is growing annually at a rate of nearly 35-40 %. The revenues generated by the BPO’s are almost $ 1.18 million and the domestic market is expected to reach $ 10 billion by the end of 2011-12[2] then IT and IT enabled services will reach nearly US$ 330 million.

Concept of Forex Rates
Foreign exchange refers to the conversion of one country’s currency into another country’s currency. H.E. Evitt[3] States that foreign exchange is that section of economic science which deals with the means and methods by which rights to wealth in one country’s currency are converted into rights to wealth in terms of another country’s currency. He further observes that it involves the investigation of the method by which the currency of one country is exchanged for that of another, the cause which renders such exchange necessary, the forms which such exchange may take, and the rations or equivalent values at which such exchanges are effected. Similarly, Dr. Paul Einzig[4] remarks that Foreign exchange is the system or process of converting one national currency into another, and of transferring money from one country to another.
 Types of Exchange Rates
            In the foreign exchange market all over the world, there are two ways in which exchange rates are expressed;
Direct and Indirect Rates
As regards Direct Exchange Rate, it expresses the units of home Currency equal to one unit of foreign currency Foreign Currency remains fixed and Home Currency varies in direct rates whereas Indirect Rates refer to the exchange rate which is quoted in terms of the number of units of foreign currency equal to one unit of local currency. Home Currency remains fixed and Foreign Currency goes on changing in indirect rates.

Spot and Forward Foreign Exchange Rates
            The spot rate of foreign exchange indicates the rate or price expressed in terms of home currency which is payable for the spot delivery of specified type of foreign exchange; whereas the forward rate of foreign exchange refers to the rate or price at which a transaction will take place at some specified time in future.

Types of Forex  Risk
            Foreign exchange exposure is categorized as (i) Transaction Exposure; (ii) Translation Exposure and (iii) Economic Exposure.

            Transaction exposure arises because of denomination of a payable or receivable in a foreign currency. Translation exposure arises on the consolidation of foreign currency denominated assets and liabilities in the process of preparing consolidated accounts. It is also regarded as accounting exposure. Economic exposure arises because the present value of a stream of expected future cash flows which are  denominated in the home currency or in a foreign currency may vary due to exchange fluctuations. Transaction and economic exposure are both considered as cash flow exposures.
Transaction exposure can also be considered as subset of economic exposure. It can be viewed because of fact that the present value of an uncovered foreign currency denominated receivable or payable changes as exchange rates changes. The value of an international operation can be expressed as the present value of expected future operating cash flows, which are incremental to that international activity discounted at the appropriate discount rate.

Concept of Forex Risk Management
            Every company that has exposure to foreign exchange risk must prudently manage & control its exposure together with management of other risks. Foreign exchange risk implies the exposure of a company to the potential impact of movements in foreign exchange rates. The risk that is caused by adverse fluctuations in exchange rates may result in a loss to the company.

            Foreign exchange risk arises mainly due to currency differences in a company’s assets & liabilities and cash flow differences. Such risk continues till the foreign exchange position is settled. This risk arises because of foreign currency cash transactions, foreign exchange trading, investments denominated in foreign currencies and investments in foreign companies. The quantum of risk is derived out by multiplying the magnitude of exchange rate changes with the size and duration of the foreign currency exposure.

Need for Forex Risk Management
Globalisation of financial markets and developments in exchange markets have resulted into complicated transnational exposure management. It is complex mainly because of (a) the increasing size and variety of exposures which companies incur as they grow globally and (b) the increasing volatility & fluctuations in exchange rates of the foreign exchange markets. Due to this complexity, a logical balanced approach is required in view of formulating company’s foreign exchange risk management programme.

Methods of Forex Risk Management
Exposure Management techniques are classified into internal and external techniques according to their basic origin. Internal techniques are mainly used as a part of company’s regulatory financial management & aims at minimizing its exposure to exchange risk. These basically aim at reducing or preventing an exposed position from arising. The external techniques are used to provide protection against the possibility that exchange losses will result from the foreign exchange risk exposure which the internal measures have not been able to eliminate. These consists of basically the contractual measures to provide protection against an exchange loss which may arise from an existing translation or exposed position.

Internal Techniques
v  Netting
            Netting implies offsetting exposures in one currency with exposure in the same or another currency, where exchange rates are expected to move high in such a way that losses or gains on the first exposed position should be offset by gains or losses on the second currency exposure.

v  Leading and Lagging
           It refers to the adjustment of intercompany credit terms, leading means a prepayment of a trade obligation and lagging means a delayed payment. It is basically intercompany technique whereas netting is purely defensive measure.

v  Pricing Policy
In order to manage foreign exchange risk exposure, there are two types of pricing tactics: price variation and currency of invoicing policy. One way for companies to protect themselves against exchange risk is to increase selling prices to offset the adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations. Selling price requires the analysis of competitive situation, customer credibility, price controls and internal delays.

v  Asset and Liability Management
            This technique can be used to manage balance sheet, income statement and cash flow exposures. It can also be used aggressively or defensively.

External Techniques
External techniques are used by both exporters and importers as well as by multinational companies. The costs of the external exposure management methods are fixed and predetermined. The main external exposure management techniques are forward exchange contracts, short term borrowing, discounting, government exchange risk guarantees, options, futures and swaps.

v  Forward Exchange Contracts
Forward exchange contracts refer to agreements in which two parties agree upon the exchange rate at which currencies will be exchanged on future date or within future specified duration. Forward contracts reduces exchange risk element in the foreign transactions.


v  Short term Borrowing
Another alternative to hedge risks in the forward market is the short-term borrowing technique. A company can borrow either dollar or some other foreign currency or the local currency. Through short term borrowing techniques, two major difficulties of  the settlement dates and the continuing stream of foreign currency are easily solved.

v  Discounting
This technique is used to resolve the problems of continuing foreign currency exposures and uncertain settlement dates. The discounting technique for covering receivables exposures is very similar to short term borrowing. In discounting techniques, the effective discount rate less the home currency deposit rate rather that the foreign currency borrowing rate less the home currency rate as is short term borrowing techniques, is the cost.

v  Options
            Options are rights & not obligations to make buy and sell decision. An option is a contract between two parties known as the buyer and the seller or writer. The buyer pays a price or premium to the seller for the right but not the obligation to buy or sell a certain amount of a specified quantity of one currency in exchange at a fixed price for a specified period of time. The right to buy is a call option and the right to sell is a put option.

v  Futures
Futures are contracts to buy or sell financial instruments, for forward delivery or settlement on standardized terms and conditions. Future contacts are similar to forward contracts but are more liquid as these are traded on recognized exchanges.

v  SWAPS

Swaps refer to a contract between two parties, termed as counter-parties, who exchange payments between them for an agreed period of time according to certain specified rules. It is defined as a financial transaction involving two counter-parties who agreed terms to exchange streams of payments or cash flows overtime on the basis of  agreed at the beginning of the contract. Swap is like a series of forward contracts. Swaps involve a series of exchanges at specific futures dates between counter parties.

Conclusions and Suggestions
 Derivatives used for mitigating risk must increase due to the increased global linkages and
volatile exchange rates. Firms must focus at development of  sound risk management
system and also need to formulate their hedging strategy. Foreign exchange risk management must be conducted in the context of a comprehensive business plan. Hedging should also be done without speculation. Further, in-correct application of hedging strategies along with no trade off between uncertainties associated with exchange rate and opportunity loss, makes a hedging foreign exchange risk itself a risk.In order to reduce the cost of hedging, it is suggested that the Government of India should revise its regulations wherein corporates should be allowed directly to deal in foreign currency derivative market in place of the banks which have so far been allowed to deal in foreign exchange market. In order to avoid delay in the implementation of hedging decisions, it is suggested that the corporates should be equipped with latest methods of technical analysis together with the introduction of statistical packages for better and accurate forecasting and timely action. Rupee- Dollar futures should be introduced in  Indian stock exchanges as a new product of derivatives so as to provide an another route for hedging forex risk.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
·                     Anthony, Robert N. "Managament Accounting ;Text and Cases", ed Richard Irwin. Illinoise : Inc, Homewood, 1972 .
·                     Bhalla    V.K.,     "Financial    Management    &    Policy",    Anmol Publications Pvt. Ltd., 1997.
·                     Bhatia, R.K., High Commissioner of India, at seminar entitled "India@Futurex" in Johannesburg, South Africa, , May 17, 2007.
·                     Chandra, P. "Financial Management - Theory and Practice", New Delhi: Tata Mc Graw Hills, 1993.
·                     Cherunilam Francis  “International Trade & Export Management”, Himalaya Publishing House, New Delhi, 2008
·                     Cherunilam Francis, "International Business - Text & Cases" Prentice Hall of India Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi 2005.
·                     Choudhary, Anil B. Roy, "Analysis and Interpretation of Financial Statements  through Financial Ratios", New Delhi, Orient Longman; 1970.
·                     Chrystal K Alec, "A Guide to Foreign Exchange Markets," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Lavis Review, March 1984.
·                     Cornell, Bradford & Alan C. Shapiro. "Managing Foreign Exchange Risks." Midland Corporate Finance Journal, Fall 1983.
·                     FERA, 1973.
·                     Friend IESJL Bickshla (ed,)  "Risk & Return in Finance"   vol. Billings Pub. Co. Cambridge, March 1977.
·                    

 
Garman, Mark B & Steven W. Kohlhagen. "Foreign currency option values."  Journal  of International  Money  &  Finance  December, 1983.
·                     Giddy, Jan H. "The Foreign Exchange Option as a Hedging Tool."Midland Corporate Finance Journal, Fall 1983.
·                     Keshkamat, V.V., "Foreign Exchange & Exchange Control", Vivek Publications Bombay, 1976.
·                     Kougman R. Poul & Ostfeld Maurice, "International Economics; Theory & Policy", Reading Mass, edition 7th 2007


[1] Quoted from the Speech of Mr. R.K. Bhatia, High Commissioner of India, at seminar entitled "India@Futurex" in Johannesburg, South Africa, , May 17, 2007.
[2] I.bid.
[3] Keshkamat, V.V., "Foreign Exchange & Exchange Control", Vivek Publications Bombay, 1976, P3.
[4] I.bid.